I’ve spent a lot of time this week managing complexity. And it’s gone well. I think looking for simple and remembering the end goal are two key ingredients. Backcasting happens a lot. Expecting exogenous shocks instead of being all outraged when they happen is another. That’s all that’s really on the mind. That and how much code I have left to write. 🙂

1. The purpose of analytics is to derive competitive advantage for the organization / firm / entity.2. Data alone does not yield competitive advantage.3. A sequence of progressive hypothesis testing is the most efficient and effective method to derive competitive advantage from data.4. Predicting the future requires an understanding of cause and effect.5. Correlation is not always Causality.6. Accuracy over Precision.7. It is possible for there to be two optimal, equally true, answers to a problem. (And Sometimes More!) (X^2 = 4, x=-2, 2). And what’s the point of the seven axioms? I’m stating, as clearly as possible, what I believe to be at the root of how analytics should be practiced and it should be anchored to reality. Explicit[…]

It is possible for there to be two optimal, equally true, answers to a problem (And sometimes more!). (X^2 = 4, x=-2, 2). .

I published seven axioms over the past week – in a not so humble fashion. I’m taking the James Burke line to heart and just putting it out there. The Seven Axioms are: 1. The purpose of analytics is to derive competitive advantage for the organization / firm / entity. 2. Data alone does not yield competitive advantage. 3. A sequence of progressive hypothesis testing is the most efficient and effective method to derive competitive advantage from data. 4. Predicting the future requires an understanding of cause and effect. 5. Correlation is not always Causality. 6. Accuracy over Precision. 7. It is possible for there to be two optimal, equally true, answers to a problem. (And Sometimes More!) (X^2 =[…]

I’m reading Sam Ladner’s thesis. It’s strong work, and quite possibly one of the best reading experiences I’ve had since “Reading Virtual Minds”. On Page 149, there’s a quote in explaining the common occurrence for ‘fires’ to occur as a result of low-ball estimation: Curt: Why do they have the fires? Sam: Yes Curt: There could be a million different reasons if you think about it, I mean, clients coming in with aggressive timelines period or everybody will come in with big dreams, right?…Like you never lose the champagne dream even if you’ve got a beer bottle budget, right? You always dream big but you might not be, like, okay…” And I’m in awe. What a gem. And I ask[…]