Two intersecting themes for you today – attribution and decision making.
This paper from Google Analytics and eMarketer really got me started, and you can download it here. It’s a survey of marketers and agencies (n=179) gauging attitudes, expectations, and objectives in attribution. Which is so hot right now. Thank you, Google. Great stuff.
There’s a big difference between satisficing decision making behavior, and optimizing decision making behavior.
Satisficing decision making behavior is characterized by:
- Good enough because it’s good enough.
- If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
- We only really have to do the minimum to satisfy our expectations.
Optimizing decision making behavior is characterized by:
- Searching for better.
- Thinking forward and thinking backwards.
- Seeking to maximize an objective.
People chose which behavior to pursue: be it satisficing or optimizing. From that choice flows all sorts of effects.
- It decides the types of resources they invest, and where.
- It manipulates their preferences.
- If affects the very risks they take.
The survey is useful – but which is it? Are marketers in a state of satisficing or in a state of optimizing?
- 62% state that ‘justifying digital spending’ is high priority.
- That figure falls to 57% for those who “plan to use it to create the most effective marketing mix”.
- And to 47% for using it to plan campaigns.
I can’t tell if respondents are lying to themselves about what they would do, or if this signals a genuine aspiration, a genuine expectation, that optimization could happen if they only knew what didn’t know. (And it happened to agree with their channel-bias.)
There’s certainly a desire to prove they matter.
Would marketers accept the answer if the evidence was tremendously damaging to their interests? Would Old Gil over in Radio accept an 85% cut if a model said so? Doesn’t old Gil get a lick?
What do you think? Are marketers ready to make optimization decisions?
I’m Christopher Berry.
I tweet about analytics @cjpberry
I write at christopherberry.ca